Technical Analysis - Charts and Commentary

Tech Rating: -3

Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

Back at the start of the year it looked like CTRP was on a ride toward a new trend; that idea has since derailed.

We close out that bullish call with less than a 40 basis point unfavorable move against the entry price.

All indicators are negative with no oversold values.

Price and moving averages:

Ctrip Int'l has closed below its short term moving average.

Short term moving average is currently below mid term, and below long term moving averages.

Mid term moving average is currently below long term

The relationship between price and moving averages is: bearish in short term, and bearish in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands:

CTRP has closed above bottom band by 20.0%.

Bollinger Bands are 46.8% narrower than normal.

The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to CTRP's normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

CCI is now in negative range and generated a sell short signal on prior close.

MACD

Crossovers:

            Currently MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line.

            MACD crossed below its signal line 12 bars ago.

            Since MACD crossed its moving average, CTRP's price has decreased -2.00%

            and has ranged from a high of    48 to a low of 45.27

MACD is not in an overbought/oversold range.

There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

**This commentary is for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

About the Technical Rating Indicator

The Technical Rating Indicator combines established methods of technical analysis along with regression analysis and a weighting system based on signal strength to provide a technical rating. Note that none of the indicators use standard settings, and none of the settings have been optimized to fit a particular data set (avoiding in-sample bias).

The result is a clean, proprietary technical research rating system.

The Technical Rating Indicator is expressed in values ranging from -3 to +3.

A technical rating of -3 is issued when all individual indicators are exhibiting readings consistent with previous periods of negative prices (i.e. conditions are “bearish” for the stock price, based on historical analysis). A technical rating of +3 is issued when the individual indicators are exhibiting readings consistent with previous periods of positive price movement (i.e. conditions are “bullish” for the stock, based on historical analysis). Intermediate readings indicate a mix of signals from the inputs to the Technical Rating Indicator.

Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.